高考申論題
114年
[戶政] 人口政策與人口統計
第 四 題
四、我們常用「人口加倍時間」以反映一個人口的成長速度和潛在人口課題。下表數據為我國 1946-2024 年間的人口統計，請根據此一數據計算歷年人口成長之加倍時間，然後以此指標討論我國之人口轉型和各時期之人口發展課題。（25 分）
1946-2024 年我國年底人口數
| 年別 | 年底人口數 |
|---|---|
| 1946 | 6,090,860 |
| 1947 | 6,497,734 |
| 1948 | 6,807,601 |
| 1949 | 7,396,931 |
| 1950 | 7,554,399 |
| 1951 | 7,869,247 |
| 1952 | 8,128,374 |
| 1953 | 8,438,016 |
| 1954 | 8,749,151 |
| 1955 | 9,077,643 |
| 1956 | 9,390,381 |
| 1957 | 9,690,250 |
| 1958 | 10,039,435 |
| 1959 | 10,431,341 |
| 1960 | 10,792,202 |
| 1961 | 11,149,139 |
| 1962 | 11,511,728 |
| 1963 | 11,883,523 |
| 1964 | 12,256,682 |
| 1965 | 12,628,348 |
| 1966 | 12,992,763 |
| 1967 | 13,296,571 |
| 1968 | 13,650,370 |
| 1969 | 14,334,862 |
| 1970 | 14,675,964 |
| 1971 | 14,994,823 |
| 1972 | 15,307,774 |
| 1973 | 15,642,467 |
| 1974 | 15,927,167 |
| 1975 | 16,223,089 |
| 1976 | 16,579,737 |
| 1977 | 16,882,053 |
| 1978 | 17,202,491 |
| 1979 | 17,543,067 |
| 1980 | 17,866,008 |
| 1981 | 18,193,955 |
| 1982 | 18,515,754 |
| 1983 | 18,790,538 |
| 1984 | 19,069,194 |
| 1985 | 19,313,825 |
| 1986 | 19,509,082 |
| 1987 | 19,725,010 |
| 1988 | 19,954,397 |
| 1989 | 20,156,587 |
| 1990 | 20,401,305 |
| 1991 | 20,605,831 |
| 1992 | 20,802,622 |
| 1993 | 20,995,416 |
| 1994 | 21,177,874 |
| 1995 | 21,357,431 |
| 1996 | 21,525,433 |
| 1997 | 21,742,815 |
| 1998 | 21,928,591 |
| 1999 | 22,092,387 |
| 2000 | 22,276,672 |
| 2001 | 22,405,568 |
| 2002 | 22,520,776 |
| 2003 | 22,604,550 |
| 2004 | 22,689,122 |
| 2005 | 22,770,383 |
| 2006 | 22,876,527 |
| 2007 | 22,958,360 |
| 2008 | 23,037,031 |
| 2009 | 23,119,772 |
| 2010 | 23,162,123 |
| 2011 | 23,224,912 |
| 2012 | 23,315,822 |
| 2013 | 23,373,517 |
| 2014 | 23,433,753 |
| 2015 | 23,492,074 |
| 2016 | 23,539,816 |
| 2017 | 23,571,227 |
| 2018 | 23,588,932 |
| 2019 | 23,603,121 |
| 2020 | 23,561,236 |
| 2021 | 23,375,314 |
| 2022 | 23,264,640 |
| 2023 | 23,420,442 |
| 2024 | 23,400,220 |
1946-2024 年我國年底人口數
| 年別 | 年底人口數 |
|---|---|
| 1946 | 6,090,860 |
| 1947 | 6,497,734 |
| 1948 | 6,807,601 |
| 1949 | 7,396,931 |
| 1950 | 7,554,399 |
| 1951 | 7,869,247 |
| 1952 | 8,128,374 |
| 1953 | 8,438,016 |
| 1954 | 8,749,151 |
| 1955 | 9,077,643 |
| 1956 | 9,390,381 |
| 1957 | 9,690,250 |
| 1958 | 10,039,435 |
| 1959 | 10,431,341 |
| 1960 | 10,792,202 |
| 1961 | 11,149,139 |
| 1962 | 11,511,728 |
| 1963 | 11,883,523 |
| 1964 | 12,256,682 |
| 1965 | 12,628,348 |
| 1966 | 12,992,763 |
| 1967 | 13,296,571 |
| 1968 | 13,650,370 |
| 1969 | 14,334,862 |
| 1970 | 14,675,964 |
| 1971 | 14,994,823 |
| 1972 | 15,307,774 |
| 1973 | 15,642,467 |
| 1974 | 15,927,167 |
| 1975 | 16,223,089 |
| 1976 | 16,579,737 |
| 1977 | 16,882,053 |
| 1978 | 17,202,491 |
| 1979 | 17,543,067 |
| 1980 | 17,866,008 |
| 1981 | 18,193,955 |
| 1982 | 18,515,754 |
| 1983 | 18,790,538 |
| 1984 | 19,069,194 |
| 1985 | 19,313,825 |
| 1986 | 19,509,082 |
| 1987 | 19,725,010 |
| 1988 | 19,954,397 |
| 1989 | 20,156,587 |
| 1990 | 20,401,305 |
| 1991 | 20,605,831 |
| 1992 | 20,802,622 |
| 1993 | 20,995,416 |
| 1994 | 21,177,874 |
| 1995 | 21,357,431 |
| 1996 | 21,525,433 |
| 1997 | 21,742,815 |
| 1998 | 21,928,591 |
| 1999 | 22,092,387 |
| 2000 | 22,276,672 |
| 2001 | 22,405,568 |
| 2002 | 22,520,776 |
| 2003 | 22,604,550 |
| 2004 | 22,689,122 |
| 2005 | 22,770,383 |
| 2006 | 22,876,527 |
| 2007 | 22,958,360 |
| 2008 | 23,037,031 |
| 2009 | 23,119,772 |
| 2010 | 23,162,123 |
| 2011 | 23,224,912 |
| 2012 | 23,315,822 |
| 2013 | 23,373,517 |
| 2014 | 23,433,753 |
| 2015 | 23,492,074 |
| 2016 | 23,539,816 |
| 2017 | 23,571,227 |
| 2018 | 23,588,932 |
| 2019 | 23,603,121 |
| 2020 | 23,561,236 |
| 2021 | 23,375,314 |
| 2022 | 23,264,640 |
| 2023 | 23,420,442 |
| 2024 | 23,400,220 |
📝 此題為申論題
思路引導 VIP
本題測驗「人口加倍時間」的計算原理及其在臺灣人口發展史上的應用。解題應先列出計算公式（70法則），接著依據臺灣1946-2024年的人口變動趨勢分為四個階段（戰後嬰兒潮、家庭計畫期、少子高齡期、人口負成長期），分別敘述各階段的加倍時間特徵與對應的政策課題。
🤖
AI 詳解
AI 專屬家教
【破題】 「人口加倍時間」（Doubling Time）係指在特定的人口成長率下，總人口數增加一倍所需的時間。此指標能直觀反映人口膨脹的速度與潛在社會壓力；隨著我國人口轉型，此指標已從早期的「極短時間加倍」轉變為現今的「無法加倍（人口負成長）」，深刻反映各時期截然不同的人口發展課題。 【論述】
▼ 還有更多解析內容
人口加倍時間與轉型
💡 以加倍時間(70法則)衡量成長速度，分析人口轉型歷程與課題。
🔗 臺灣人口轉型演進因果鏈
- 1 戰後高成長期 — 加倍時間極短(約20年)，面臨糧食與教育資源匱乏。
- 2 人口紅利期 — 出生率降，勞動力充裕，重點在就業機會與經濟轉型。
- 3 人口高齡化 — 生育率跌破替換水準，加倍時間劇增，轉向長照政策。
- 4 人口負成長 — 2020年自然增加轉負，進入減半期，衝擊產業與國安。
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🔄 延伸學習：延伸學習：總生育率(TFR)與扶養比之關聯
